Possible scenarios for what lies ahead for the Internet industry.
The web is a mirror to man – its developments reflects developments and evolution of the human society, technology, economics and small-scale politics. In the recent year, for example, there’s the buzz of Web 2.0. It reflects a general notion of decentralizing, of a shift of focus from producers needs to consumers needs, and a very fragile democracy – much like what is happening in the world around us.
But what lies ahead? When all this "user-generated" revolution would have ended, where will we be headed?
Scenario 1 – The cellular take-over (or Death of the Browser part I)
Technology, as I previously implied, has much influence over how the web evolves. With Wi-Fi and wireless technologies beginning to accumulate bandwidth similar to this of broadband home networks, and the growing percentage of cellular end-users all over the world, the Web will start serving us when we’re mobile. Cell phones, PDAs, Palms, Blackberries and the likes will render our desktop computer and even our laptop obsolete, and the focus will shift to location based services. Imagine a cellular cell, providing RSS feeds to all platforms within range. RSS feeds of hot deals in the area’s restaurants, of users comments on traffic jams, of neighborhood activities – the possibilities are endless. We would see the popping of ad-hoc social networks, which belong in the same cell.
Probability: Likely.
Tagline: Don’t SMS, RSSMS!
Scenario 2 – The "Tabs" Operating System (or Death of the Browser Part II)
The Internet and the Web in particular will start drawing in so much of our lives (more than now? Is that even possible?), that someone will understand we need a revision to our computer’s architecture. Our computer will become web-oriented. That means Google and Mozilla will team up to write a new operating system (maybe even call it "Tabs", much more convenient than windows, isn’t it?). It will have a small kernel responsible for device management, and also for network connections, but will not have a very robust API for other uses because almost no software will be needed – everything will be online. For example, anybody knows the Zoho Suite? It allows you to open MS-Word documents on your browser. Such will be the case with everything we need – small online applets that perform every task we need, accessible through the main and only application of the new operating system.
Probabilty: Likely.
Tagline: No more MS-Windows, but GM-Tabs!
Scenario 3 – The Back-Track
Fear (and loathing) have much influence on our evolution. As Master Yoda once said: "Fear leads to suffering, suffering leads to hate, hate leads to pain". In our case, fear will lead us to detach ourselves from the internet. The mass of online information, the confusion it creates, and the incredibility of user-generated content will make us abandon the Web. There’s no point in swimming in a sea of dirt, now is there? And then someone with credibility will start up a content site, and voila! Welcome back Web 1.0.
Probability: Unlikely.
Tagline: Bye Bye UGI (User Generated Internet)!
October 21st, 2007 at 9:42 am
What’s Web 3.0? It’s a personalized web. Where the web understand you. How will it work?
Different words have different meaning to different people. Different people are identified by different demographics. There’s no need for the machine to understand all that meaning stuff. As long as people understand, and communicate with the smallest possible unit of related meaning. Which is the question and answer.
By simply matching questions with other similar questions, and group the answers from all the experts, users are given access to the best possible knowledge available from all perspectives. So you can learn at a much faster rate, bypassing the uninteresting noise for the interesting nuggets of knowledge.
The next generation of the web will make use of what we like, what we know, and what we’ve done, to give us what we need. Based on our recent search history. Based on our demographics. Based on our ratings, questions and answers.