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Have you ever thought about what lies in the near future?  Remember the scientists and historians who predicted the end of the world in 2000, or better yet flying cars and space travel becoming a commodity?  Unfortunately, almost a decade after the new millennium, no magic switch has been turned, no industrial revolution has occurred and no major groundbreaking discoveries have been made.

But do not be dissapointed.  Sometimes astounding predictions do come true.  Possibly the most remarkable modern time prediction is the famous Moore’s Law, which states that ever year computer memory will double.  So far this prediction has stood for over a decade, and is expected to remain true for many years to come.

A very interesting website, Long Bets exists dedicated entirely to act as an arena for people to place serious long term bets, or simply to make long term predictions about what they would expect to happen in the future world.  The website contains a large list of interesting predictions ranging from 5 years to infinity, for completion and bets as big as $20,000.  It is also notable to say, that some of the bets made are so long that it would require for grandchildren to collect the prize money in the case the bet was won.

Here are some of the bets and predictions with opinions in regard of them:

1. By 2029 no computer – or “machine intelligence” – will have passed the Turing Test.

This is a very interesting bet and possibly the most popular on the website.  It entails a machine, specifically a computer to take the Turing Test.  In this test the machine and three other foils will communicate with three judges through an IM like environment for two hours each.  After the judges discuss any topic they wish with the participants, they will rate all four participants on a scale of one through four – one being least human.  If the judges at the end of the test are not able to distinguish the computer among the participants, the Turing Test has been passed.

2. By 2030, commercial passengers will routinely fly in pilotless planes.

This is a much more modest bet , but yet presents an argument that relies on Moore’s Law.  If by that year the computer is 4000 more times powerful than now it is not a small possibility, to think that maybe a feat like this can very well be possible.

3. At least one human alive in the year 2000 will still be alive in 2150.

This bet is very interesting.  Peter Schwartz, the predictor, better hope he is the survivor, or his grand children will be collecting the prize money.  It is not reasonable to think since age expectancy has doubled in this century that it could in the next.  Mr. Schwartz argues that telomeres (small tails on cells) are the cause of aging.  As human cells divide, the tail is cut in half.  When it can no longer divide the cell dies, leading to the human death. He believes that as human scientists figure out how to control this phenomenon, endless cell division cold occur leading to a much longer life.

4. By 2020, bioterror or bioerror will lead to one million casualties in a single event.

A rather terrifying prediction, but logical due to all the research and development occurring around the globe.  It is an ethical question, will human knowledge and power eventually be the end of the human?  It is hard to imagine what type of an occurrence this would be, with such large casualties and only a decade away from now.  We better all hope that this prediction does not come true…

5. By 2070, at least six countries will have officially implemented a 4-day working week.

On a lighter note, this a predicition everyone would probably love to see come true.  With world population growing exponentially, if the nutrition industry is able to keep up with the world needs it will be of no surprise if a large percentage of the population will see their work week decline.  Maybe the reason unemployability rates are so high is simply because their are not enough things to do out their?  Just as far as there is enough food for everybody changes like this could very well be possible.